PROBABLY NOTHING
Separating the signal from the noise
IN THIS ISSUE (12) - 17 August 2026
🤑 What could move BTC in the near term
🛰️ SpaceX showed some impressive earnings
📉 Tech stops charging a fortune for growth
THE WEEK IN MARKETS
Geopolitics ran the tape. With the Strait of Hormuz still effectively shut since July and Houthi strikes hitting Saudi oil infrastructure, crude ground higher for a sixth straight session, Brent near $89 and WTI at a monthly high around $84. Gold did what safe havens do, adding 4.5% to about $4,430 and pressing records. Energy and defence led equities, and an in-line July inflation print of 3.4% barely registered against the oil headlines.
Underneath, earnings carried the market, with more than 85% of companies beating estimates. The data-centre trade roared back, CoreWeave and Super Micro both jumping about 19% on results, while On Holding cratered more than 20% on soft guidance. Crypto dozed. Bitcoin eased 0.9% to around $63,700, still pinned below $67,000, Ether slipped 0.8%, and the only real pulse sat in the alts, Solana up 4.9%. Spot Bitcoin ETFs wobbled, snapping an inflow streak midweek.
🔥 WHAT’S UP: Brent crude | +6.0% | 1 week
💧 WHAT’S DOWN: On Holding | -20% | 1 day
Data correct as at 12 August 2026.
THE BIG READ
Bitcoin needs a reason, not a level
Bitcoin is near $65,000, staring up at a ceiling it cannot clear. The $67,000 to $70,000 band is roughly where the last three months of buyers sit underwater, which is exactly where they turn into sellers just to break even. By Forbes' running tally the coin is still down nearly half from its October record, so there is plenty of that supply to grind through. A breakout needs fresh demand to eat it whole, and for most of 2026 there was none. This month, a few of the conditions are finally falling into place. None are checked off yet. That is the whole story.
The headwind stops blowing
The single biggest weight on risk assets all summer has been the threat of a September rate hike. That threat just took a hit from an unlikely direction, the labour market:
Jobs: the US economy did something it had not done since February and shed 23,000 payrolls against an expected 80,000 gain.
Oil: Brent slid almost 12% to around $79 as Iran tensions cooled and OPEC+ opened the taps, gutting the inflation case.
Rates: traders quietly walked back their September hike bets as Treasury yields slipped.
The headwind has not reversed into a tailwind. It has simply stopped blowing in Bitcoin's face, which after three months is its own kind of progress.
What has to go right
The demand shows up: A ceiling of sellers only breaks when buyers outnumber them. One early-August session pulled in $244 million and large holders added roughly $1.2 billion while smaller wallets sold. The catch is that a few good days is not a trend.
Rate cuts move onto the table: A Fed expected to ease re-rates every long-duration bet at once, and Bitcoin is the longest-duration asset in the room. But the market is still pricing a hold, not a pivot.
The calendar clears: The least glamorous item: Bitcoin just has to survive August, historically one of its weakest months. Clearing it lifts a seasonal drag heading into the fourth quarter, when liquidity usually returns. Same hill, lighter backpack.
The setup is there
For the first time all year, the pieces are actually there. Buyers are back through the funds, the rate threat that capped every rally is fading, and the calendar is about to turn. The wall at $67,000 has held because nothing gave the market a reason to push through it, and that is the part now changing. None of it is proof: the flows are days old, the Fed is still on hold, and August is only half done. What has shifted is not the price but the backdrop. For once, the question is open rather than closed.
Whichever way, you can buy and sell Bitcoin on Luno in your local currency.
QUICK TAKES
🛰️ SpaceX beats, and the stock falls anyway
SpaceX's first results as a public company were a blowout, with revenue up 92% to $7.8 billion, clearing every estimate. Shares slid after hours regardless, because capital spending hit $18.4 billion in a single quarter, a $73.5 billion annualised run rate against a $48.7 billion consensus. Starlink quietly prints the profit while the AI segment lost $1.26 billion. Investors will bankroll the ambition, right up until they see the bill. Read more
📉 Tech stops charging a fortune for growth
The premium investors pay for tech has quietly deflated. A year ago a dollar of expected tech earnings cost roughly 35% more than a dollar of S&P 500 earnings; today that premium is about 10%. The twist is that the earnings behind the price tag are still showing up, with solid sales growth, expanding margins and rising estimates. So this is the rare kind of cheaper that comes from a smaller premium rather than a broken story. For once, the multiple came down and the business did not. Read more
🚪 Crypto's biggest trader is diversifying out of crypto
Wintermute, one of the largest market makers in digital assets, is committing about $1 billion to AI data centres and high-frequency trading so it can chase Jane Street and Citadel across equities, commodities and FX. It wants non-crypto to clear half its revenue by end-2027, up from 10% today. Daily volumes sliding to $10 billion from $15 billion tend to concentrate the mind. Read more
PROBABLY SOMETHING
Stablecoin cards just hit a record. July spending volume climbed +16% to $1.03B, up 200% year-over-year, with 10M+ purchases in a single month. Three years ago, that number was $1M. The draw? Instant settlement and global access, with 68% of volume now coming from outside the US. Read more
